The cogs are turning

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It took one of us 33 hours on four flights through five empty airports, and the other 38 hours on consulate-arranged transportation and a ferry plus two weeks in state-imposed quarantine at a Soviet-style 1-star hotel, to bring our families back to our countries of citizenship since nearly all international flights had been cancelled and our country of residence wouldn’t accept us.

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We were trying to abort the sinking ship: when we arrived in Turkey, the country’s official statistic of registered coronavirus cases stood at zero – and the government took a lot of pride in the number given that other large countries already had thousands infected – however, a month later Turkey had over 100,000 reported cases, more than all but the U.S., Spain, Italy, France, Germany, and the U.K.

Our biggest concern was not the reported number of cases though – it was the unreported cases. While the media in Turkey is now almost entirely state-controlled and has painted a calming picture of a country skillfully keeping the virus at bay, the excess deaths are at least more than twice the number of official deaths. For ten days in a row in April, the ratio of official coronavirus-related deaths to the number of cases stood exactly at 2.1%; when this was pointed out by the public, the ratio shifted overnight. Healthcare professionals that made coronavirus statements contradicting the state’s official position had to publicly apologize. While a third of Turkey’s prisoners were freed in fear of coronavirus contagion and riots, the political dissidents and journalists were kept behind bars, helping the country maintain its record for the number of journalists in jail. Over 400 people were detained because they posted independent, government-unapproved coronavirus information on social media. We hope this write-up doesn’t lead to the same outcome on our next visit to the country.

Instead of a lockdown like most countries had done, Turkey only required the non-working age population to stay home, and nearly a month into the pandemic started shutting down the country on weekends. This was decided and announced for the first time only two hours before midnight on Friday, triggering chaos on the streets with crowds of people mingling in massive lines for groceries and clashing with the police and each other. The president – in whose sole power lies the decision to declare lockdowns – said “production must continue and the cogs must keep turning under every circumstance and every condition” in spite of the mayor of Istanbul and others in the opposition party calling for a complete lockdown.

The crisis mismanagement will only lead to a weaker economy and increased political turbulence. In fact, markets are already pricing this in as the currency devalued nearly 15% so far despite the government's attempts to prop it up by burning through reserves at an alarming rate. But Turkey is used to chronic currency instability: holding the record for the most currency crises, it has seen its currency devalue by over 50% in a twelve-month period four times in the past 30 years (and declining over 20% no less than 12 times) with the most recent 50% decline occurring only two years ago.